I decided to base this particular analysis on the metric I'm most familiar with, Wins Above Replacement (WAR). But, since this is supposed to be about offense, I needed to look at just the offensive components of WAR.
WAR is comprised of seven different categories, only five of which are relevant here:
- Runs from Batting
- Runs from Baserunning
- Runs from Reached on Error
- Runs from Grounded into Double Plays
- Runs from Fielding
- Runs from Positional Scarcity
- Runs from Replacement Level
Basically, I took each player's Runs Above Replacement and subtracted his Runs from Fielding and Runs from Positional Scarcity. The latter statistic is based on the concept that, if a team were to get the exact same production out of its catcher as from its first baseman, the catcher would be far more valuable. This makes sense, but I'm looking to determine overall offensive production, not value.
Lastly, since I'm talking about who was(is) the most productive, I decided to rank the players on a per plate appearance basis. So, let's cut right to the chase and present the 50 most productive offensive players in baseball history, among those with a minimum of 6,000 career plate appearances, based on position-independent offensive RAR per plate appearance:
- Babe Ruth
- Lou Gehrig
- Ted Williams
- Barry Bonds
- Dan Brouthers
- Mickey Mantle
- Ty Cobb
- Albert Pujols
- Rogers Hornsby
- Joe Jackson
- Billy Hamilton
- Jimmie Foxx
- Joe DiMaggio
- Ed Delahanty
- Willie Mays
- Tris Speaker
- Stan Musial
- Frank Thomas
- Hank Greenberg
- Mark McGwire
- Hank Aaron
- Johnny Mize
- Mel Ott
- Alex Rodriguez
- Frank Robinson
- Roger Connor
- Dick Allen
- Manny Ramirez
- Jeff Bagwell
- Sam Thompson
- Edgar Martinez
- Eddie Collins
- Harry Heilmann
- Honus Wagner
- Jim Thome
- Elmer Flick
- Jason Giambi
- Cap Anson
- Jesse Burkett
- Eddie Mathews
- Nap Lajoie
- Ralph Kiner
- Rickey Henderson
- Mike Schmidt
- Duke Snider
- Chipper Jones
- Joe Morgan
- Willie McCovey
- Gary Sheffield
- Lance Berkman
If you're interested in the actual numbers, you can view the spreadsheet here.
A few observations:
- Obviously, this is a rate stat, so it favors players with short or incomplete careers. It will be interesting to see if Albert Pujols can sustain his top ten ranking over the remainder of his career.
- Among the top eight, none of them peaked in the same decade. This may be an indication of this particular metric's effectiveness at adjusting for era. Obviously, taken at face value, Dan Brouthers's numbers can't possibly compare to Bonds's. Bonds hit over 650 more home runs than Brouthers, had a higher on-base percentage and twice as many stolen bases, yet Brouthers—who played in the power-deficient 19th century—lands right behind him on the list.
- The list seems fairly representative of all eras, including 19th century and modern players, with 10 beginning their careers prior to 1900, and 14 having played at least part of their careers in the 21st century.
- Other than the 19th century players, who most people aren't as familiar with, I'd say the list comes pretty close to reinforcing our pre-conceived notions about how these players stack up against each other. Obviously, different people will have differing opinions, but by how much? Do any of these rankings seem significantly out of whack?
Fascinating analysis! The most compelling point about it may be how, as you note, it spans all eras of the game.
ReplyDeleteUnless I've overlooked someone, it appears Dick Allen is the highest ranked former player on the list who's not in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Curious what you (and any others) think about whether he should be elected.
Thanks Dan!
ReplyDeleteTechnically, Mark McGwire ranks highest among Hall of Fame eligibles (so, not counting Joe Jackson and those who retired after 2005) who aren't in the Hall, but I could see how you'd think of him in a different category. That list would be:
1. Mark McGwire
2. Dick Allen
3. Jeff Bagwell
4. Edgar Martinez
5. Jack Fournier
6. Harry Stovey
If I were kicking everyone out of the Hall of Fame and rebuilding its membership from scratch, Dick Allen would definitely have a place. If you're interested in that sort of thing, check out this series on Beyond the Box Score.
So, yes, I think Allen's a Hall of Famer, but because that's not the case, there are others who I would advocate for ahead of him.
Overlooking McGwire was a bit of a Steroidian slip on my part.
ReplyDeleteDo you think WAR is more valuable than OPS+ or offensive winning pct%. Those are strong stats as well. Thanks.
ReplyDelete