That said, I'm not going to write about how to fix it. If you're interested in reading more on that subject, here are some ideas worth kicking around.
I am, however, going to take you through the trite 'ole hypothetical ballot exercise. Except I've got two hypothetical ballots. Bear with me if you please.
The first is who I'd vote for independent of what I know about prior BBWAA ballots. In other words, if I had no idea of how the voting might go.
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Jeff Bagwell
Mike Piazza
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
These are who I consider the ten most deserving players on the ballot. Honestly, after the first eight, I'm pretty torn on six guys to take the final two slots. More on that in a minute.
The second hypothetical ballot is who I'd vote for if I actually had a vote, with a heavy emphasis on how the vote is trending based on recent elections.
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Jeff Bagwell
Mike Piazza
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina
Tim Raines
Craig Biggio
Larry Walker
Edgar Martinez
As you can figure out for yourself, on the second ballot, I've dropped Bonds, Clemens and Trammell and added Biggio, Walker and Edgar Martinez.
My reasons may be obvious to some, but I'll explain.
Bonds and Clemens aren't going anywhere. That is, they're not getting in anytime soon, and they're not in jeopardy of falling off the ballot either. They've been safely in the mid-to-upper-30s (in terms of voter percentage) both of their years on the ballot, and that's not going to change drastically.
Trammell, I'm sorry to say, is the definition of a lost cause. Considering this is his second-to-last chance, he'll be put out of his BBWAA misery and moving on to the hopefully greener pastures of the Veterans Committee shortly.
There's no sense using a vote on any of these three that could be applied more usefully to someone with a chance of getting in or who needs help staying on the ballot.
Biggio fell two votes short of election last year. He's the 14th best player (out of 17 who I think are deserving) on this ballot, so getting him inducted and out of the way will be a step toward clearing a path for other deserving candidates to get their due.
I suppose I could vote for John Smoltz (#13 on the ballot, in my opinion) for the same reason, but his candidacy is trending towards easily reaching the 75% threshold, so I'm going to assume he needs my vote less than Biggio does.
Walker and Martinez are my 11th and 12th most deserving players. Walker is in jeopardy of falling off the ballot if his support takes a significant hit, so he needs the vote more than any of my top 12 candidates. Martinez is in a less tenuous position, but his candidacy needs to build some momentum as he reaches the latter half of his ballot eligibility.
That leaves Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield as the three remaining players I'd vote for if there wasn't a 10-player restriction, and the 15th through 17th most deserving players, in my opinion. McGwire and Sosa are lost causes due to the PED issue, and it appears Sheffield is trending in the same direction.
I'd honestly like to cast a hypothetical vote for Sheffield just to help him stay on the ballot, as I believe his PED transgressions are murkier than some of the others, but he's just too far down my list to justify that decision.
Lastly, I'm going to predict four players are inducted this year: Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz and Biggio. Piazza's vote total will make a big jump, but fall short of 75%, paving the way for his induction with Ken Griffey Jr. next year. Bagwell and Raines will receive a significant boost in support as well.
For Bagwell, I think he'll eventually earn election before his BBWAA eligibility runs out. For Raines, I'm not so optimistic.
For Bagwell, I think he'll eventually earn election before his BBWAA eligibility runs out. For Raines, I'm not so optimistic.
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