BBA Awards, Part 5: Stan Musial

In the fifth and final part of this series, I'm offering my votes for the Stan Musial Award, the BBA's equivalent of the Most Valuable Player.

I wonder if it's just a huge coincidence that the BBA's founder is a St. Louis Cardinals fan and its Most Valuable Player award is named after Stan Musial? Not that he's not kinda worthy of the honor, but I'm just curious. Quite honestly, the award should be named after Barry Bonds, who won more than twice as many MVP awards as any other player in history.

But, I digress. It definitely isn't a coincidence that, just as the Willie Mays award was no contest, so is this one. That non-coincidence, of course, can be attributed to Mike Trout, who easily was the most outstanding and, therefore, most valuable player in all of baseball.

I decided to take the high road and vote Miguel Cabrera second, even though a sabermetric argument could be made for Robinson Cano, or even that Cabrera wasn't even the most valuable player on his own team. This, of course, makes me wonder how many petty real voters would consider bumping their candidate's primary competitor down? I'm sure it never happens. Right?

Stan Musial Award - AL

1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
3. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
4. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
5. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
6. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
7. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
8. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
9. Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
10. Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics

In the National League, it's a much, much tougher decision. The top five guys here are basically interchangeable, but I do consider some of the old school arguments, especially when it's virtually a tossup.

I'll let you fill in the blanks as to why that means Posey and Molina rank first and second, although I do think Posey stands out just a little from the rest of the candidates.

Stan Musial Award - NL

1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
2. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
3. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
4. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
6. David Wright, New York Mets
7. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres
8. Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves
9. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
10. R.A. Dickey, New York Mets

BBA Awards, Part 4: Walter Johnson

In part four of this series, I'm offering up my selections for the BBA's Walter Johnson Award, our group's equivalent of Major League Baseball's Cy Young Award.

I don't really have time to over-analyze these picks, so I'm just going to cut right to the chase here.

The American League award really comes down to just two guys, Detroit's Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay's David Price, and to be completely honest, it's not too difficult a decision to choose between them. For the second year in a row, Verlander was the league's best pitcher.

Walter Johnson Award - AL

1. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
2. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
3. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
5. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

To me, the National League is a three-horse race between R.A. Dickey, Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw. I will say I kind of wanted to vote for Dickey, but I honestly think the only argument that can be made against Kershaw is he only won 14 games. That's not a very good argument.

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

Walter Johnson Award - NL

1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
2. R.A. Dickey, New York Mets
3. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
4. Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
5. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

BBA Awards, Part 3: Goose Gossage

In part three of this series, I'm presenting my choices for the BBA's Goose Gossage Award, which recognizes the season's best relief pitcher in each league.

Three relievers had historic performances in 2012, but only two of them will win these awards. Tampa Bay's Fernando Rodney's season is being compared to Dennis Eckersley's 1990. There was a point late in the year where their statistics were almost identical, with the exception being Rodney's walk rate, while impressive, was three times that of Eckersley's phenomenal 5 BB in 73 1/3 IP.

Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel struck out 50.2% of the batters he faced in 2012. The last pitcher to strike out more than half the batters he faced in a season was Francisco Rodriguez in 2002. Rodriguez faced 21 batters after a September call-up that year (striking out 13), so he doesn't really count. Besides these two, no one else has ever accomplished this feat over a season in which he pitched three or more innings. Kimbrel pitched 62 2/3 this year.

Cincinnati's Aroldis Chapman gets lost in the shuffle here. He actually struck out a pretty incredible 44.2% of the batters he faced, and posted a 1.51 ERA over 71 2/3 innings.

Other relievers had good seasons, but no one else is really worth mentioning in the same breath as these guys. I have to fill out my ballot, though, so Rafael Soriano, Jim Johnson and Jonathan Papelbon get some recognition as well.

I don't necessarily believe all of these votes have to go to closers. But, that's how it turned out, mainly because there weren't any non-closers who had seasons as good as David Robertson did a year ago.

Goose Gossage Award - AL

1. Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
3. Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles

Goose Gossage Award - NL

1. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
2. Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
3. Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies 

BBA Awards, Part 2: Willie Mays

In part two of this series, I'm presenting my choices for the BBA's Willie Mays Award, our group's equivalent of the Rookie of the Year.

The American League award isn't even a contest. In fact, if it's unanimous—which it better be—I'm going to propose to BBA leadership that we change the name of this honor to the Mike Trout Award.

Texas's Yu Darvish and Oakland's Yoenis Cespedes had years that normally would place them in the discussion, but to their misfortune, they happened to debut in the same year as the second coming of...well, Willie Mays.

Willie Mays Award - AL

1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
3. Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics

Early in the year, all the hype surrounded a National League rookie 14 months younger than Trout. Maybe that's the reason Trout's star shone as brightly as it did, because the spotlight was elsewhere.

Despite there being no comparison between the two, the only rookie in all of baseball who clearly had a better year than Washington's Bryce Harper was Trout. Sure, you could argue Arizona's Wade Miley—who receives my second-place vote—or that Darvish and/or Cespedes was better, but Harper put together a Rookie of the Year caliber season, and he gets my vote.

Third place was up for grabs, but I chose St. Louis' 18-game winner Lance Lynn ahead of a long list of solid candidates that included Cincinnati's Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart, Milwaukee's Norichika Aoki, and Houston's Lucas Harrell.

Willie Mays Award - NL

1. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
2. Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals

BBA Awards, Part 1: Connie Mack

It's that time of year again. As an active member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA), I'm asked to vote on several year-end awards, so this post will get things started.

The Connie Mack Award is the BBA equivalent of Manager of the Year.

It's tough deciding what manager had the most positive impact on his team in a given year. There aren't any statistics, and there really is no way of evaluating each skipper's ability as a leader, something which is entirely too subjective for my taste anyway.

So, the only thing I really have to go on is what manager's team most exceeded expectations. To get an idea of this, I looked at ESPN's 2012 MLB Preview, in which 50 "experts" predicted who would make—and who would advance in—the playoffs.

Starting with the American League, as it turns out, the ESPN experts weren't much help. I'm sure you're completely shocked about that.

Of the 50 prognosticators, only two of them picked a team other than the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Tigers, Rangers and Angels to qualify for the postseason, and that oddball team was the Blue Jays. So, since not a single person picked the Orioles or Athletics, this didn't offer much help in deciding between the two clear-cut best candidates for the award.

But, the team that not only exceeded pre-season expectations, but also continued to defy the notion that eventually they would be exposed as pretenders, is the Orioles. Their +7 run differential was that of a team expected to finish 82-80 rather than 93-69. This 11-win difference can probably be partially attributed to good fortune, timely hitting and strong relief pitching. But, the other factor that may or may not be relevant is shrewd management.

Yes, I'm guessing Buck Showalter had something to do with the Orioles' ability to play over their heads this year, and for that reason he edges out the Athletics' Bob Melvin for my choice as the American League's Manager of the Year.

Third place goes to Robin Ventura, for guiding the White Sox—another team nobody gave a chance to win the AL Central over the mighty Tigers—to an 85-77 season that landed them three games short of the playoffs.

Connie Mack Award - AL

1. Buck Showalter, Baltimore Orioles
2. Bob Melvin, Oakland Athletics
3. Robin Ventura - Chicago White Sox

The National League was a little easier, in my opinion. Well, at least my first-place vote wasn't too difficult.

Only 15 of ESPN's 50 experts picked the Nationals to make the playoffs, and they, in fact, finished the season with the best record in all of baseball. Almost twice as many picked the Cardinals, Giants and Reds, which is a big number, considering the predictions are spread over quite a few more teams than in the American League.

That leaves the Braves among playoff teams, who were, somewhat surprisingly, only picked by 14 of the 50. So, somewhat reluctantly, I'm going with Fredi Gonzalez—whose team did bounce back a little better than the Red Sox from last year's disastrous September—as my second-place vote to the Nationals' Davey Johnson.

For third place, I'm throwing a vote to the Pirates' Clint Hurdle for leading his team to their best performance—sadly, at 79-83—since 1997.

Connie Mack Award - NL

1. Davey Johnson, Washington Nationals
2. Fredi Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves
3. Clint Hurdle, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Left Field All-Star Ballot

Last year, I introduced a new (to me) approach to determining my all-star selections for my Baseball Blogger's Alliance ballot. The gist of it was I based my choices on a full year's worth of performance—i.e. this time last year until now—rather than just year-to-date numbers.

This year, I'm sticking with that formula, but with a couple minor adjustments:

1. To place a slight emphasis on this year's performance, I made a short list of the candidates at each position (based on statistics from mid-2011 to present), then basically chose the player who is having a better 2012 so far. That way, I ensured I was picking someone who was worthy based on an entire year's results and not based on a hot start that might fizzle out.
2. I chose players only at their primary 2012 positions, which is probably where their names appear on the actual ballot (although, admittedly I didn't actually look at the official ballot).

Catcher
AL - Matt Wieters (Baltimore)
NL - Carlos Ruiz (Philadelphia)

Wieters wins out over Mike Napoli because, while Napoli had a better second half of 2011, Wieters is clearly better so far this year. Ruiz and Yadier Molina are pretty even based on last-calendar-year numbers, but Ruiz's other-worldy offensive first half of 2012 makes him an easy choice.

First Base
AL - Edwin Encarnacion (Toronto)
NL - Joey Votto (Cincinnati)

Nobody even comes close to Votto, in either league. Albert Pujols has slightly better numbers than Encarnacion since mid-2011, but the latter's 2012 is far superior.

Second Base
AL - Robinson Cano (New York)
NL - Brandon Phillips (Cincinnati)

Cano is another easy pick. The NL is a virtual tossup between Dan Uggla and Phillips. I'm going with Phillips because Uggla's offensive advantage is negligible, while Phillips's defensive edge is quite significant.

Shortstop
AL - Elvis Andrus (Texas)
NL - Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado)

Andrus is another pretty obvious choice here. Tulowitzki's not off to a great start, partly due to injury, but based on the calendar year formula, no one else can really compete.

Third Base
AL - Adrian Beltre (Texas)
NL - David Wright (New York)

The AL is a three-way battle between Beltre, Miguel Cabrera and Brett Lawrie. Beltre's having a better 2012 than Cabrera and is better since mid-2011 than Lawrie.

Outfield
AL - Alex Gordon (Kansas City), Mike Trout (Los Angeles), Josh Hamilton (Texas)
NL - Ryan Braun (Milwaukee), Michael Bourn (Atlanta), Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh)

My philosophy has always been that at least one outfielder has to be a center fielder. It's somewhat unusual this year that there are two in each league who fit the bill (Trout and Hamilton in the AL, Bourn and McCutchen in the NL). Trout and Bourn get the nods to handle center field duties in the actual game.

Designated Hitter
AL - David Ortiz (Boston)
NL - Matt Kemp (Los Angeles)

In the AL, we have an actual DH for this spot. Since there are no DHs in the NL, I'll go with the most deserving hitter who didn't earn a starting role elsewhere.

Pitcher
AL - Justin Verlander (Detroit)
NL - Zack Greinke (Milwaukee)

These choices were both surprisingly easy.

Cooperstown Class of 2012

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) recently announced—for what it's worth to the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA)—its recommendations for the Hall of Fame Class of 2012.

With 84.25% and 78.77% of the vote, respectively, of the 148 member blogs—including this one—that participated, Barry Larkin and Jeff Bagwell received the BBA's endorsement.

I voted for Larkin, Bagwell, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker. Walker is the only one of the six who I did not vote for last year, although I admitted then I needed to take a closer look at him. I since have come to the realization he is worthy of becoming the first member of the Colorado Rockies in the Hall of Fame.

Despite the anti-Coors Field bias working against him, his park-adjusted offensive numbers (140 OPS+, 142 wRC+)* are comparable to deserving Hall of Famers such as Reggie Jackson, Harmon Killebrew, and Duke Snider. Admittedly, he did so over fewer plate appearances than Jackson and Killebrew, but the value-based metrics—mainly WAR*—rate him comparable to Snider, a notch below Jackson, but a notch above Killebrew.

The main reason he compares so favorably to these and other existing Hall of Famers: defensive value. Walker ranks just shy of the top 20 all-time in defensive WAR, among players whose primary position was outfield, a fact which is reinforced by his seven Gold Gloves. Now, many folks—including myself—are a little skeptical about defensive metrics, as well as Gold Glove awards, but when one backs up the other, it's pretty safe to say they're a true indicator of a player's defensive ability.

The thing about great all-around players like Walker—who also was a good base runner—is, since he didn't have that one exceptional skill—i.e. he wasn't as good a hitter as Killebrew and Jackson, but he surely was better at every other phase of the game—people tend to write them off as not quite Hall of Fame worthy. The same applies to guys like Raines, Larkin and Trammell as well. But, in my opinion, those people are wrong.

As I did last year, I declined to vote for Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro based on my still-evolving philosophy regarding PEDs and the Hall of Fame. Although, admittedly, not without its flaws, I wrote about my thoughts on that subject here two years ago. I've actually begun to re-think my position, though, and I may be writing about this in the weeks to come. If you want to criticize me for taking six years to make up my mind, or for being indecisive, so be it. Besides, mine is just a make-believe vote anyway.

For now, though, I'm going to focus on taking a look at whether or not the BBA's vote is a predictor of next week's announcement of the official BBWAA results.

It seems everyone is under the assumption Larkin will be the only player elected by the writers this year. Last year, he received 70.78% of the BBA vote. This year, his support jumped to 84.25%, a 19% increase. If his 62.1% 2011 BBWAA vote total increases at the same rate, that will leave him at 73.9%, just shy of the 75% needed for induction. Unfortunately, I have a sneaky suspicion that's just what's going to happen. He'll fall somewhere in the 72-74% range and have to wait until the crowded 2013 ballot to see if he can get over the hump.

Bagwell's BBA total is up, from 62.34% in 2011, to 78.77% in 2012, a 26.4% increase. I'm not sure if there are BBA voters with the same ridiculous first-year ballot bias as some of those in the BBWAA, but this could explain such a big jump. Even at that rate, this would only get him to 52.9% in the official balloting, compared to last year's 41.7%. So, I don't think Bagwell's going to get in this year either.

Jack Morris and Lee Smith received 53.5% and 45.3%, respectively, of the official vote last year. Since the BBA is more SABRmetrically inclined than the BBWAA, I don't think the BBA's voting provides much of a indicator of these guys' chances.

Smith has been stagnating in the mid-40s for four years now, and I don't see his candidacy receiving a boost in support. Personally, I think—and hope—Morris's candidacy has plateaued as well. Last year's total was only slightly higher than the year before. I see him getting to 55% this year, and holding off Bagwell for the distinction of second highest vote-getter, but I predict he'll become one of the rare candidates to reach the 50% voting mark, but never make the Hall of Fame.

Bernie Williams is the only first-ballot candidate worthy of consideration. But, despite a very good career that ended a little prematurely, Bernie falls short of Cooperstown-worthy, in my eyes and likely in the eyes of the voters. He'll get the requisite 5% of the vote to stick around for at least another year, though, but with all the candidates being added to the ballot in the next few years, he'll end up nothing but an afterthought.

So, there you have it. My prediction that the only speech we'll be hearing at the Clark Sports Center this summer will be that of Ron Santo's wife.

* Since I don't use the advanced metrics on a regular basis here, I figured I should explain:

• OPS+ is park and league-adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage. 100 is average. Greater than 100 is above average, less than 100 below average.
• wRC+ is park and league-adjusted weighted runs created, an improved version of Bill James's runs created statistic. It's comparable to OPS+ in terms of scale (i.e. 100 is average).
• WAR, of course, is Wins Above Replacement, the SABRmetric community's attempt to establish an all-encompassing statistic that measure a player's overall value to his team.

Best Music of 2011: Part 1

Despite being a member of the Baseball Blogger's Alliance (BBA), this blog is far from entirely about baseball. Yet, when he does his weekly links post for the BBA's General Chapter, my pal The Flagrant Fan continues to highlight my non-baseball work. Since the blog's output has been dwindling of late, his posts are probably my main generator of traffic these days, so I'm quite appreciative.

So, in an attempt to be clever, and because I don't really have time to write extensively about my top albums of the year—but I still wish to count them down—I thought I'd try something a little different. That is, I'm going to emphasize baseball in my brief write-ups of the music that made my year. Or, at least I'm going to try to highlight each artist's connection with baseball as much as possible.

Anyway, we'll see how that goes.

If you're new here and care to read a little more about the history of my obsession with this particular exercise, please read what I wrote about it last year. In fact, I might add that the genesis of this blog was to count down my top ten albums of 2003. The writing wasn't as good then—well, at least I hope I've improved in the past eight years—but I still give myself an "E" for effort.

And now on the list of my favorite 33 albums that were released in 2011:

33. Kurt Vile - Smoke Ring for My Halo
I'm not sure to whom Kurt pledges his baseball loyalties (if anyone), but it seems this Angels blog is trying to claim them. However, I do know that this record's producer—John Agnello—is a die-hard Mets fan, the poor guy.

32. Lucinda Williams - Blessed
I don't know for certain if Lucinda is a baseball fan, but "Soldier's Song" provides some evidence. Written from the perspective of a man fighting for his country overseas while his wife is home with their child, she sings "I don't know my enemy's name. Baby takes the little one to a baseball game." That settles it, as far as I'm concerned, although I suspect she's not a fan of WAR.

31. R.E.M. - Collapse Into Now
I know at least two of the Athens, Georgia college rock pioneers are into baseball. Peter Buck plays bass in The Baseball Project (we'll hear from them later) and claims to be a Washington Senators fan, for what it's worth. Mike Mills is also known to be a pretty big Atlanta Braves supporter.

30. Steve Earle - I'll Never Get Out of This World Alive
There's a photo kicking around the interwebs somewhere of my pal Anders Parker and Steve Earle, in which the Texas native (Earle) is wearing a Yankees jersey. An interview he did a few years ago for ESPN's Page2 provides some insight into why that is.

29. M83 - Hurry Up, We're Dreaming
M83 is Frenchman Anthony Gonzalez's creative outlet, and just one of two European acts in this year's rankings. I'm not saying Europeans don't like baseball, but it's certainly easier to find American artists who do.

28. J Mascis - Several Shades of Why
The Dinosaur Jr. leader played the same stage as new Chicago Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein recently, as both men joined Buffalo Tom in celebrating the band's 25th anniversary at Boston's Brighton Music Hall.

27. Centro-Matic - Candidate Waltz
Although the band hails from Denton, Texas, Centro-Matic front-man Will Johnson is from Missouri, and is a big-time Cardinals fan. On his web site's about page, after rambling on primarily about the type of work he's done, he ends by saying, "I love baseball. I have always loved baseball." Taking this love, and his art, to another level, however, one of his hobbies is painting portraits of mostly legendary baseball players.

26. Elbow - Build a Rocket Boys!
This English band is the highest ranking European artist on this year's list. Last year, I honored five European and six Canadian artists, in addition to 22 Americans. This year's distribution: two Europeans, three Canadians (still to come), 28 Americans. As far as baseball is concerned, the only connection I can draw is that Elbow's lead singer is named Guy Garvey.

Next: Best Music of 2011: Part 2

BBA Awards: Part 1

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance has their own set of year-end awards that its members vote on, and are asked to do so in a blog post. Each of these awards is appropriately named after one of baseball's all-time greats. This being my first year in the organization, it will be my first time casting votes for the following awards:

• Connie Mack Award (Manager of the Year)
• Willie Mays Award (Rookie of the Year)
• Goose Gossage Award (Reliever of the Year)

Connie Mack Award - AL

1. Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Joe Girardi, New York Yankees
3. Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers

I'll start with the Connie Mack Award because, to me, this one is fairly easy, at least to the extent that I view such an award. When thinking about this honor, I tend to favor the managers whose teams outperformed expectations. That's really all we have to go on, in my opinion, and the two teams that most exceeded expectations were the Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks.

It's not that no one predicted the Rays to make the playoffs, but not many people gave them a chance this year, especially after losing Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano and Carlos Peña to free agency. But, what was even more impressive was how they did it, by erasing a huge wild card deficit and overtaking the Boston Red Sox on the last day of the season. To me, there's no question that Joe Maddon is the American League's top manager this year.

Connie Mack Award - NL

1. Kirk Gibson, Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Ron Roenicke, Milwaukee Brewers
3. Tony LaRussa, St. Louis Cardinals
   

It may actually be true that no one picked the Diamondbacks to reach the playoffs, and for that reason, Kirk Gibson is the clear choice for best National League skipper.

Other worthy candidates include the New York Yankees' Joe Girardi, for guiding a team considered to have highly suspect starting pitching to the best record in the American League; the Detroit Tigers' Jim Leyland, for managing a team that few expected would win 95 games; the Milwaukee Brewers' Ron Roenicke, for leading the brew crew to their first playoff appearance in almost 30 years; and Tony LaRussa, because his team pulled off almost as impressive a comeback as the Rays, and they did it without the ace of their pitching staff, Adam Wainwright.

Willie Mays Award - AL

1. Alexi Ogando, Texas Rangers
2. Michael Pineda, Seattle Mariners
3. Ivan Nova, New York Yankees

There were a lot of solid rookie performers in the American League this year, but no one who really stood out. I'm surprised that very little has been said about Ogando's chances, but he gets my vote over a couple other young starting pitchers.

Willie Mays Award - NL

1. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
2. Vance Worley, Philadelphia Phillies
3. Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals

Everyone loves to downplay the importance of relief pitchers, but a rookie taking over a pretty high pressure situation, and handling it as well as Kimbrel did, is fairly impressive to me. He was one of the best in the National League at his role, so he gets my vote as the top first-year player in the league.

Goose Gossage Award - AL

1. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
2. Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
3. David Robertson, New York Yankees

If saves are an over-rated statistic, then blown saves are even more so. Valverde was 49-for-49 in save opportunities, but he also lost four games. His four losses were all tie games in which he failed to pitch the one scoreless inning he was asked to. This is basically the equivalent of blowing a one-run lead, so Valverde's lack of blown saves is at least a little misleading. So, let's face it, Mariano Rivera may have blown five saves, and lost two, but he was clearly better this year. I'm favoring closers for this award, but rounding out the top three is Yankees setup man David Robertson, who deserves some recognition for the fantastic year he had.

Goose Gossage Award - NL

1. John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
2. Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves

Although I downplayed the blown save statistic in explaining my pick for the AL's best reliever—but, seriously, that was to argue Mariano Rivera over Jose Valverde—I'm going to use it to help me decide between three excellent National League closers. All else being fairly equal, Axford converted 46-of-48, Hanrahan 40-of-44, and Kimbrel 46-of-54.

The Left Field National League All-Star Ballot

I already explained this in my American League post, but just to be sure to cover all the bases, I'll say it again. My All-Star picks are based on each player's performance since this point in the season last year (i.e. 6/15/10 - 6/15/11), and they're presented here because I like to share my opinions about such things—I wouldn't be writing a blog if I didn't—and as part of the voting for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

I also want to elaborate a little on why I chose to base my picks on the last calendar year rather than 2011 to date, and the best way to do this is with an example.

Last year, I advocated that Colorado's Miguel Olivo had been the best catcher in all of baseball in the first half, yet he was completely overlooked by not being selected for the National League team. In the first half of 2010, he batted .325 with 11 HR, 42 RBI and a 150 OPS+, and at the time of the aforementioned post had thrown out 46.5% of would-be base-stealers. In the second half, he batted .193 with 3 HR, 16 RBI and a 48 OPS+. I don't have his defensive splits, but even his caught-stealing percentage dropped to 42.3% by the end of the year.

The bottom line is Miguel Olivo has never produced an entire season in his career that was worthy of All-Star selection. So, with apologies to the Howie Kendricks, Matt Joyces and Alex Avilas of the baseball world, I need to see a little more sustained production before I vote you onto my All-Star team.

Now that I've got that out of the way, here are my National League selections:

Catcher - Brian McCann (Atlanta)
There's not really much question about who the best all-around catcher in the National League is, especially with San Francisco's Buster Posey unavailable due to injury.

First Base - Joey Votto (Cincinnati)
It's hard to believe this is such a no-brainer too, but St. Louis's Albert Pujols doesn't even come close.

Second Base - Rickie Weeks (Milwaukee)
Is Weeks officially a superstar yet? I'm not sure, but I'm pretty certain there's no other National League second baseman worthy of comparison.

Shortstop - Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado)
Despite the fact that the Mets' Jose Reyes is off to such a tremendous start to 2011, Tulowitzki is the best shortstop in the league over the last calendar year.

Third Base - Chase Headley (San Diego)
We all know Washington's Ryan Zimmerman is a better player, but Headley is tied with him in WAR since mid-June of last year and, therefore, gets the nod based on the current year performance tie-breaker.

Outfield - Matt Holliday (St. Louis), Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh), Ryan Braun (Milwaukee)
Holliday's a no-brainer. McCutchen doesn't need the center fielder requirement to make this squad, but he'll play that position nevertheless. Lastly, I'm taking Braun over Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez because of better 2011 performance, and over Cincinnati's Drew Stubbs because of better offensive production.

Starting Pitcher - Roy Halladay (Philadelphia)
I don't really need to justify this pick, do I?

There you have it, my 2011 All-Star ballot.

The Left Field American League All-Star Ballot

One of several votes that the Baseball Bloggers Alliance collaborates on throughout the year is the All-Star ballot. As such, I've determined my picks for starters in both leagues and will reveal them here, after I explain my methodology a little.

I've read a lot lately about how selecting an All-Star team based on two-plus months worth of performance is a flawed idea, and although that's how I've generally done it in the past, I've come to agree with this assessment. So, I thought I'd base my picks on an entire year's worth of performance, with an ever-so-slight emphasis on the current season, where applicable. 

It probably would have been better to use statistics since last year's All-Star break, but they're not so easily available, so I utilized FanGraphs' functionality to display the numbers for the past calendar year (i.e. 6/15/10 - 6/15/11). I primarily looked at WAR, for its ability to take both offensive and defensive performance into consideration, but I made a few discretionary adjustments.

First, the American League:

Catcher - Matt Wieters (Baltimore)
Wieters wins out over Detroit's Victor Martinez—who hasn't really caught all that much this year—and Minnesota's Joe Mauer, who's been injured most of 2011 to date. 

First Base - Miguel Cabrera (Detroit)
It was a close call between Cabrera and Boston's Adrian Gonzalez, but I ultimately chose Cabrera because this is an American League All-Star team, and Gonzalez was a National Leaguer for a good portion of the sample period.

Second Base - Robinson Cano (New York)
I gave Cano the edge over Texas's Ian Kinsler, because Kinsler's slight edge in WAR is primarily due to defense. Honestly, I still don't completely trust WAR's ability to measure fielding, especially when it comes to the fact Cano rated as below-average last year.

Shortstop - Alexei Ramirez (Chicago)
Cleveland's Asdrubal Cabrera is off to a great start this year, but combining this year's numbers with those from mid-June of last year on makes Ramirez an obvious choice.

Third Base - Adrian Beltre (Texas)
Beltre had an excellent 2010, and is off to a good start for 2011, so he's my pick over Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria and the Yankees' Alex Rodriguez.

Outfield - Jose Bautista (Toronto), Curtis Granderson (New York), Josh Hamilton (Texas)
I'm a firm believer that at least one of the three outfield positions should be a center fielder, but Granderson deserves one of the three spots regardless of that distinction. I had to decide between Hamilton, who really hasn't done much yet this year, and the Yankees' Brett Gardner, believe it or not. I just couldn't bring myself to proclaim Gardner an All-Star starter, so I went with Hamilton, despite the fact his selection is almost entirely based on 2 1/2 months of performance from last year.

Designated Hitter - David Ortiz (Boston)
Not really much to choose from here, so Ortiz's 2011 first-half resurgence earns him the spot.

Starting Pitcher - Jered Weaver (Los Angeles)
Although not technically part of the ballot, starting pitcher is a four-horse race between Weaver, Seattle's Felix Hernandez, New York's C.C. Sabathia and Detroit's Justin Verlander. Weaver earns the tie-breaker based on 2011 performance.

I'll return with my National League picks in a separate post.

MLB HOF Madness on 85% Sports

A site called 85% Sports, a fellow member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, has been running a March Madness tournament of their own for about a month or so now. They started out with 68 entrants, including a play-in round to narrow the pool down to four 16-team brackets.

This particular tournament involves the blog's quest to determine the greatest Hall of Famer of all-time. The 68-player bracket of Major League Baseball's all-time greatest has since been narrowed down to 16. Voting on 85% Sports' Slugging Sixteen runs through April 12th.

Here's my breakdown of the matchups and who I voted for:

Sparky Anderson Bracket

#1 Babe Ruth vs. #5 Rickey Henderson
As great a player as Rickey was, I'm not really sure that he even belongs in the top 16 of all-time. I voted for Grover Cleveland Alexander, who Henderson upset in the round of 32. This one's a pretty easy call...Babe Ruth by a landslide.

#3 Honus Wagner vs. #2 Stan Musial
This is a tough one, but I had to go with the greatest shortstop of all-time over the third best left fielder. Honus Wagner it is.

Leo Durocher Bracket

#1 Willie Mays vs. #4 Joe DiMaggio
Despite the fact that DiMaggio is my father's hero, there's really not much question that Willie Mays had the superior career and ranks #1 on my list of center fielders.

#3 Walter Johnson vs. #2 Ty Cobb
"The Big Train" ranks as probably one of the top two pitchers in history, and that beats out the #2 center fielder of all-time in my book.

Branch Rickey Bracket

#1 Hank Aaron vs. #5 Sandy Koufax
Koufax had a great peak, but he doesn't even belong among the top 16 pitchers of all-time, let alone the top 16 players. Hank Aaron wins this one by a wide margin.

Although Koufax, as the fifth-seeded player, making the final 16 is not a major upset, this bracket has featured the biggest upset in the tournament, at least by seeding standards (I completely disagree with Koufax being a #5 seed, obviously, but that's not my point). The guys at 85% Sports gave Josh Gibson the #4 seed in the bracket, but he was knocked off by #13 seed Nolan  Ryan in the first round.

Why? Because, not surprisingly, the majority of the folks voting in this contest have very little idea how to compare Negro League stars to their Major League Baseball counterparts. I'm not saying I do, but it would seem a no-brainer to me that perhaps the greatest player in Negro League history is better than Nolan Ryan.

#3 Mickey Mantle vs. #2 Cy Young
Along with Walter Johnson, Cy Young has to be considered one of the top two pitchers in history. I'm taking that over the #3 center fielder.

Casey Stengel Bracket

#1 Ted Williams vs. #5 Johnny Bench
It's tough being a catcher. Bench was the greatest of all-time at his position, but while that was enough to get him past Christy Mathewson in the prior round, it doesn't beat out Teddy Ballgame.

#3 Rogers Hornsby vs. #2 Lou Gehrig
This is another very tough call. Hornsby is debatably the best second baseman ever, but Gehrig is indisputably #1 among first baseman. Plus, he's Lou Gehrig, so he gets my vote.

So, if I get my way, we'll be looking at these matchups to decide who advances to the Final Four:

Babe Ruth vs. Honus Wagner
Willie Mays vs. Walter Johnson
Hank Aaron vs. Cy Young
Ted Williams vs. Lou Gehrig

Cooperstown Class of 2011

I recently joined a group called the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA). Founded by Daniel Shoptaw, author of the St. Louis Cardinals blog C70 At The Bat, the BBA was formed in 2009 to foster communication and collaboration between bloggers across baseball.

As a secondary purpose, the BBA produces year-end awards and Hall of Fame recommendations that are voted on by its membership. So, my timing in joining was excellent, as it gave me the opportunity to be one of 154 member blogs to participate in this year's Hall of Fame voting.

The result of this year's BBA vote was the recommendation of Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven for the Hall of Fame Class of 2011. I voted for both Alomar and Blyleven, as well as five others, and I was happy to be able to take part in this process. I thought I'd share my votes here, as well as explain my justifications for each, in advance of tomorrow's official announcement.

Roberto Alomar
Alomar is, undoubtedly, a player who produced a career worthy of first-ballot Hall of Famer status, but fell eight votes short of the 75% needed for induction in his first year of eligibility. Why he didn't get elected last year is beyond me—well, actually it was likely due to an over-emphasis by voters on the "morality clause"—but there's very little doubt in my mind he'll make it this year.

Jeff Bagwell
There's been a lot of debate in the blogosphere regarding Bagwell and a perceived new McCarthyism being employed by writers who have proclaimed they will not vote for him based on the fact that they suspect—based on no significant evidence—steroid usage. While I don't have a problem with the idea of waiting a few years to decide on a particular candidate, in this case I wonder what it will take for these writers to be convinced that the lack of evidence exonerates Bagwell.

I'm not going down that road. Bagwell is a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer and, as far as I know, nobody has any evidence that he cheated. If any of these writers has anything on him, they should make it public. Otherwise, as far as I'm concerned, I'm judging his career at face value. Unfortunately, I think enough voters are of a different mindset, which means we don't really know if and when he'll eventually receive his due.

Bert Blyleven
I'll admit that it took me a little while to come around on Blyleven, but I think that's OK. I think voters have a responsibility to remain open-minded and spend a few years reconsidering the borderline candidates they've decided against. Personally, that's what I plan to do with the difficult decisions from the "steroid era."

The main argument regarding Blyleven is whether or not he was an excellent player, or just merely very good. So, I'll ask the question: If a player maintains performance that could be described as very good for considerably longer than most of his peers, does that elevate his career to greater than very good?

Personally, I think the combination of Blyleven's longevity and the fact that he was at least a little underrated during his playing days are the difference between very good and the Hall of Fame. He gets my vote, and he will likely get enough BBWAA votes this year to get in.

Barry Larkin
I usually don't use these awards as arguments, but Larkin won nine National League Silver Sluggers between 1988 and 1999. Meanwhile, a fellow named Ozzie Smith was winning all the Gold Gloves. Then, in 1993, Smith turned 38, and Larkin won three of his own from 1994 to 1996. He also was named to 12 All-Star teams.

Plus, he's 10th all-time among shortstops in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and two of the players ahead of him are Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. That means there are 16 Hall of Fame shortstops behind him on the list. So, why did he only receive 51.6% of the vote in his first year on the ballot? I'm not sure, although I think he'll get in eventually. But, probably not this year. 

Edgar Martinez
There are some who refuse to vote for Martinez for the Hall of Fame due to an anti-DH bias. This is a joke. Whether you like it or not, the fact of the matter is the DH is a part of the game, and a legitimate position occupied by players whose teams consider it to be where they offer the most value.

Martinez wasn't incapable of playing the field. In fact, when he did play the field, he was no worse than just below average. There are plenty of Hall of Famers who were just-below-average defenders. Martinez was a little older than most when he started playing full-time and suffered a few injuries in his early 30s that resulted in the Mariners' decision to protect his health by using him as a DH.

Why? Because he was an incredible hitter. So incredible, in fact, that the only argument anyone can use to keep him out of the Hall of Fame is that he wasn't a "complete player." Hogwash.

Tim Raines
I don't think I can make a better case for Raines than I did in this blog two years ago, but I will offer you a short list of the best speed-oriented leadoff hitters in the second half of the 20th century, in my opinion:

1. Rickey Henderson
2. Tim Raines
3. Lou Brock

Henderson and Brock were both first-ballot Hall of Famers. Enough said.

I'm curious to see if there is a significant increase in his support this year, his fourth on the ballot. Regardless, he only received 30.4% of the vote last year, so it's unlikely he'll reach 75% anytime soon, if ever.

Alan Trammell
Trammell compares pretty favorably to Larkin, except in his case he was going up against Cal Ripken for the American League Silver Slugger awards. In fact, from 1987 to 1990, Trammell won three out of four, while Ripken was in his prime. He also won four Gold Gloves, was named to six All-Star teams, and is 11th all-time among shortstops in WAR. Regardless, he's a lost cause, having received just 22.4% of the vote last year, his ninth on the ballot.


I could probably write another post entirely about the candidates I didn't vote for, but I'll try to be brief.

The case for Jack Morris is largely based on his win totals and his defining moment, the 10-inning shutout he pitched in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. I'm sorry, but those arguments are not enough for me to support a pitcher who only had one year in his entire career with an ERA+ of better than 130 (30% better than average). Blyleven had six by comparison, and people say he wasn't dominant enough.

Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro fall into the category of difficult decisions from the steroid era. I've written before that I think players from this period need to be viewed on a case-by-case basis, and I'm still deciding on these guys.

Lee Smith, Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly, Dave Parker, Dale Murphy and Harold Baines are all players who have very good careers, but fall short of Hall of Fame status to me.

There are a few first ballot candidates who I need to take a closer look at before deciding, most notably Larry Walker. I hope the real voters are of the same mindset, judging by the fact that only 1 of 18 ESPN writers voted for him, which happens to be the same number who voted for B.J. Surhoff.

Regardless of the outcome, I'm eagerly counting down the hours to tomorrow at 2 p.m. ET.