BBA Awards, Part 5: Stan Musial

In the fifth and final part of this series, I'm offering my votes for the Stan Musial Award, the BBA's equivalent of the Most Valuable Player.

I wonder if it's just a huge coincidence that the BBA's founder is a St. Louis Cardinals fan and its Most Valuable Player award is named after Stan Musial? Not that he's not kinda worthy of the honor, but I'm just curious. Quite honestly, the award should be named after Barry Bonds, who won more than twice as many MVP awards as any other player in history.

But, I digress. It definitely isn't a coincidence that, just as the Willie Mays award was no contest, so is this one. That non-coincidence, of course, can be attributed to Mike Trout, who easily was the most outstanding and, therefore, most valuable player in all of baseball.

I decided to take the high road and vote Miguel Cabrera second, even though a sabermetric argument could be made for Robinson Cano, or even that Cabrera wasn't even the most valuable player on his own team. This, of course, makes me wonder how many petty real voters would consider bumping their candidate's primary competitor down? I'm sure it never happens. Right?

Stan Musial Award - AL

1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
3. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
4. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
5. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
6. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
7. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
8. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
9. Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
10. Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics

In the National League, it's a much, much tougher decision. The top five guys here are basically interchangeable, but I do consider some of the old school arguments, especially when it's virtually a tossup.

I'll let you fill in the blanks as to why that means Posey and Molina rank first and second, although I do think Posey stands out just a little from the rest of the candidates.

Stan Musial Award - NL

1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
2. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
3. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
4. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
6. David Wright, New York Mets
7. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres
8. Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves
9. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
10. R.A. Dickey, New York Mets

BBA Awards, Part 4: Walter Johnson

In part four of this series, I'm offering up my selections for the BBA's Walter Johnson Award, our group's equivalent of Major League Baseball's Cy Young Award.

I don't really have time to over-analyze these picks, so I'm just going to cut right to the chase here.

The American League award really comes down to just two guys, Detroit's Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay's David Price, and to be completely honest, it's not too difficult a decision to choose between them. For the second year in a row, Verlander was the league's best pitcher.

Walter Johnson Award - AL

1. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
2. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
3. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
5. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

To me, the National League is a three-horse race between R.A. Dickey, Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw. I will say I kind of wanted to vote for Dickey, but I honestly think the only argument that can be made against Kershaw is he only won 14 games. That's not a very good argument.

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

Walter Johnson Award - NL

1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
2. R.A. Dickey, New York Mets
3. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
4. Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
5. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

BBA Awards, Part 3: Goose Gossage

In part three of this series, I'm presenting my choices for the BBA's Goose Gossage Award, which recognizes the season's best relief pitcher in each league.

Three relievers had historic performances in 2012, but only two of them will win these awards. Tampa Bay's Fernando Rodney's season is being compared to Dennis Eckersley's 1990. There was a point late in the year where their statistics were almost identical, with the exception being Rodney's walk rate, while impressive, was three times that of Eckersley's phenomenal 5 BB in 73 1/3 IP.

Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel struck out 50.2% of the batters he faced in 2012. The last pitcher to strike out more than half the batters he faced in a season was Francisco Rodriguez in 2002. Rodriguez faced 21 batters after a September call-up that year (striking out 13), so he doesn't really count. Besides these two, no one else has ever accomplished this feat over a season in which he pitched three or more innings. Kimbrel pitched 62 2/3 this year.

Cincinnati's Aroldis Chapman gets lost in the shuffle here. He actually struck out a pretty incredible 44.2% of the batters he faced, and posted a 1.51 ERA over 71 2/3 innings.

Other relievers had good seasons, but no one else is really worth mentioning in the same breath as these guys. I have to fill out my ballot, though, so Rafael Soriano, Jim Johnson and Jonathan Papelbon get some recognition as well.

I don't necessarily believe all of these votes have to go to closers. But, that's how it turned out, mainly because there weren't any non-closers who had seasons as good as David Robertson did a year ago.

Goose Gossage Award - AL

1. Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
3. Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles

Goose Gossage Award - NL

1. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
2. Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
3. Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies 

BBA Awards, Part 2: Willie Mays

In part two of this series, I'm presenting my choices for the BBA's Willie Mays Award, our group's equivalent of the Rookie of the Year.

The American League award isn't even a contest. In fact, if it's unanimous—which it better be—I'm going to propose to BBA leadership that we change the name of this honor to the Mike Trout Award.

Texas's Yu Darvish and Oakland's Yoenis Cespedes had years that normally would place them in the discussion, but to their misfortune, they happened to debut in the same year as the second coming of...well, Willie Mays.

Willie Mays Award - AL

1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
3. Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics

Early in the year, all the hype surrounded a National League rookie 14 months younger than Trout. Maybe that's the reason Trout's star shone as brightly as it did, because the spotlight was elsewhere.

Despite there being no comparison between the two, the only rookie in all of baseball who clearly had a better year than Washington's Bryce Harper was Trout. Sure, you could argue Arizona's Wade Miley—who receives my second-place vote—or that Darvish and/or Cespedes was better, but Harper put together a Rookie of the Year caliber season, and he gets my vote.

Third place was up for grabs, but I chose St. Louis' 18-game winner Lance Lynn ahead of a long list of solid candidates that included Cincinnati's Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart, Milwaukee's Norichika Aoki, and Houston's Lucas Harrell.

Willie Mays Award - NL

1. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
2. Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals

BBA Awards, Part 1: Connie Mack

It's that time of year again. As an active member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA), I'm asked to vote on several year-end awards, so this post will get things started.

The Connie Mack Award is the BBA equivalent of Manager of the Year.

It's tough deciding what manager had the most positive impact on his team in a given year. There aren't any statistics, and there really is no way of evaluating each skipper's ability as a leader, something which is entirely too subjective for my taste anyway.

So, the only thing I really have to go on is what manager's team most exceeded expectations. To get an idea of this, I looked at ESPN's 2012 MLB Preview, in which 50 "experts" predicted who would make—and who would advance in—the playoffs.

Starting with the American League, as it turns out, the ESPN experts weren't much help. I'm sure you're completely shocked about that.

Of the 50 prognosticators, only two of them picked a team other than the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Tigers, Rangers and Angels to qualify for the postseason, and that oddball team was the Blue Jays. So, since not a single person picked the Orioles or Athletics, this didn't offer much help in deciding between the two clear-cut best candidates for the award.

But, the team that not only exceeded pre-season expectations, but also continued to defy the notion that eventually they would be exposed as pretenders, is the Orioles. Their +7 run differential was that of a team expected to finish 82-80 rather than 93-69. This 11-win difference can probably be partially attributed to good fortune, timely hitting and strong relief pitching. But, the other factor that may or may not be relevant is shrewd management.

Yes, I'm guessing Buck Showalter had something to do with the Orioles' ability to play over their heads this year, and for that reason he edges out the Athletics' Bob Melvin for my choice as the American League's Manager of the Year.

Third place goes to Robin Ventura, for guiding the White Sox—another team nobody gave a chance to win the AL Central over the mighty Tigers—to an 85-77 season that landed them three games short of the playoffs.

Connie Mack Award - AL

1. Buck Showalter, Baltimore Orioles
2. Bob Melvin, Oakland Athletics
3. Robin Ventura - Chicago White Sox

The National League was a little easier, in my opinion. Well, at least my first-place vote wasn't too difficult.

Only 15 of ESPN's 50 experts picked the Nationals to make the playoffs, and they, in fact, finished the season with the best record in all of baseball. Almost twice as many picked the Cardinals, Giants and Reds, which is a big number, considering the predictions are spread over quite a few more teams than in the American League.

That leaves the Braves among playoff teams, who were, somewhat surprisingly, only picked by 14 of the 50. So, somewhat reluctantly, I'm going with Fredi Gonzalez—whose team did bounce back a little better than the Red Sox from last year's disastrous September—as my second-place vote to the Nationals' Davey Johnson.

For third place, I'm throwing a vote to the Pirates' Clint Hurdle for leading his team to their best performance—sadly, at 79-83—since 1997.

Connie Mack Award - NL

1. Davey Johnson, Washington Nationals
2. Fredi Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves
3. Clint Hurdle, Pittsburgh Pirates

High Heat Stats: Why Miguel Cabrera Deserves the AL MVP

My latest for High Heat Stats offers up a few thoughts on why Miguel Cabrera Mike Trout Miguel Cabrera deserves doesn't deserve the AL MVP.

Check it out.

BBA Awards: Part 1

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance has their own set of year-end awards that its members vote on, and are asked to do so in a blog post. Each of these awards is appropriately named after one of baseball's all-time greats. This being my first year in the organization, it will be my first time casting votes for the following awards:

• Connie Mack Award (Manager of the Year)
• Willie Mays Award (Rookie of the Year)
• Goose Gossage Award (Reliever of the Year)

Connie Mack Award - AL

1. Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Joe Girardi, New York Yankees
3. Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers

I'll start with the Connie Mack Award because, to me, this one is fairly easy, at least to the extent that I view such an award. When thinking about this honor, I tend to favor the managers whose teams outperformed expectations. That's really all we have to go on, in my opinion, and the two teams that most exceeded expectations were the Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks.

It's not that no one predicted the Rays to make the playoffs, but not many people gave them a chance this year, especially after losing Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano and Carlos Peña to free agency. But, what was even more impressive was how they did it, by erasing a huge wild card deficit and overtaking the Boston Red Sox on the last day of the season. To me, there's no question that Joe Maddon is the American League's top manager this year.

Connie Mack Award - NL

1. Kirk Gibson, Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Ron Roenicke, Milwaukee Brewers
3. Tony LaRussa, St. Louis Cardinals
   

It may actually be true that no one picked the Diamondbacks to reach the playoffs, and for that reason, Kirk Gibson is the clear choice for best National League skipper.

Other worthy candidates include the New York Yankees' Joe Girardi, for guiding a team considered to have highly suspect starting pitching to the best record in the American League; the Detroit Tigers' Jim Leyland, for managing a team that few expected would win 95 games; the Milwaukee Brewers' Ron Roenicke, for leading the brew crew to their first playoff appearance in almost 30 years; and Tony LaRussa, because his team pulled off almost as impressive a comeback as the Rays, and they did it without the ace of their pitching staff, Adam Wainwright.

Willie Mays Award - AL

1. Alexi Ogando, Texas Rangers
2. Michael Pineda, Seattle Mariners
3. Ivan Nova, New York Yankees

There were a lot of solid rookie performers in the American League this year, but no one who really stood out. I'm surprised that very little has been said about Ogando's chances, but he gets my vote over a couple other young starting pitchers.

Willie Mays Award - NL

1. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
2. Vance Worley, Philadelphia Phillies
3. Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals

Everyone loves to downplay the importance of relief pitchers, but a rookie taking over a pretty high pressure situation, and handling it as well as Kimbrel did, is fairly impressive to me. He was one of the best in the National League at his role, so he gets my vote as the top first-year player in the league.

Goose Gossage Award - AL

1. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
2. Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
3. David Robertson, New York Yankees

If saves are an over-rated statistic, then blown saves are even more so. Valverde was 49-for-49 in save opportunities, but he also lost four games. His four losses were all tie games in which he failed to pitch the one scoreless inning he was asked to. This is basically the equivalent of blowing a one-run lead, so Valverde's lack of blown saves is at least a little misleading. So, let's face it, Mariano Rivera may have blown five saves, and lost two, but he was clearly better this year. I'm favoring closers for this award, but rounding out the top three is Yankees setup man David Robertson, who deserves some recognition for the fantastic year he had.

Goose Gossage Award - NL

1. John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
2. Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves

Although I downplayed the blown save statistic in explaining my pick for the AL's best reliever—but, seriously, that was to argue Mariano Rivera over Jose Valverde—I'm going to use it to help me decide between three excellent National League closers. All else being fairly equal, Axford converted 46-of-48, Hanrahan 40-of-44, and Kimbrel 46-of-54.

Is Roy Halladay Overrated?

How could I suggest such a thing?

While I'm not trying to imply that Roy Halladay isn't as good as everyone thinks, when it comes to the recent National League Cy Young voting, I do have a bit of a beef.

My complaint is not that Halladay's season was undeserving of the award. Rather, it's with the way in which he won it. That is, unanimously.

What I don't completely understand is how all 32 voters considered him the top choice when there was another candidate who was equally deserving by most measures, and even more deserving by others. That candidate is Adam Wainwright.

Of course I'm not going to make such a statement without backing it up. So, let's start by looking at the mainstream statistics, the three categories commonly considered the Triple Crown of pitching.

• W-L record: Halladay 21-10, Wainwright 20-11
• ERA: Wainwright - 2.42, Halladay - 2.44
• Strikeouts: Halladay - 219, Wainwright - 213

Pretty even, right? Halladay's six-strikeout edge and slightly better won-lost record, while playing for a team that won 7% more of its games than Wainwright's, certainly isn't justification for the wide margin by which he won the award.

So, let's take a slightly deeper look. Halladay is lauded for his 7.30 K/BB ratio, and compared to Wainwright's 3.80, this appears to be a pretty big edge, on the surface. But, taking a closer look, Wainwright actually averaged 8.32 strikeouts per nine innings to Halladay's 7.86. So, obviously this means Wainwright had a considerably higher walk rate (2.18 to 1.08). However, Halladay made up for this by giving up more hits than Wainwright.

In fact, looking at opponents' batting statistics versus each pitcher, Halladay yielded a higher batting average (.245 to .224), which effectively canceled out Wainwright's higher walk rate, as evidenced by their almost identical opponents' on-base percentages (Wainwright - .274, Halladay - .271). But, Halladay not only got hit harder, he also gave up considerably more home runs (24 to 15). This gives Wainwright a considerable edge in opponents' slugging percentage (.330 to .373) and OPS (.604 to .645).

Let's dig a little further and look at a few SABRmetric statistics. I'm providing simplistic explanations regarding each, rather than attempting to explain how each is calculated, which would be quite difficult.

• ERC (Component ERA) measures a pitcher's ERA based on the hits and walks he allowed, rather than actual runs: Wainwright - 2.38, Halladay - 2.69
• DIPS ERA (Defense-Independent ERA) attempts to measure a pitcher's ERA independent of the defense behind him: Wainwright - 2.97, Halladay - 3.09
• ERA+ is park-adjusted and league-adjusted ERA, expressed as a percentage relative to the average pitcher: Halladay - 165 (65% better than average), Wainwright - 161

As you can see, Wainwright outshines Halladay in two of three SABRmetric measures that attempt to normalize a pitcher's ERA, one of them by a pretty wide margin.

So, where does Halladay have a clear advantage over Wainwright? Well, he pitched more innings (250 2/3 to 230 1/3), and threw more complete games (9 to 5) and more shutouts (4 to 2). His other considerable edge is in the fact that he's Roy Halladay.

Is he overrated? Well, not really. But, did he receive preferential treatment in this year's Cy Young voting due to his reputation? Quite possibly, yes. Did he have a season that was deserving of the award? Of course, but Adam Wainwright was just as, if not more, deserving and how he managed to earn zero first-place votes is a question I can't possibly answer.

AL MVP Poll

Updated 10/16/08 @ 12:09AM: With the voting closed in my American League MVP poll, it seems that my coverage of the controversial play from last Monday night's Red Sox-Angels ALDS Game Four had more influence on its outcome than my argument for Justin Morneau. Likely, at least in part, due to an influx of traffic from Angels sympathizers, the final tally is as follows:

Francisco Rodriguez, Angels - 5
Justin Morneau, Twins - 4
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox - 3
Josh Hamilton, Rangers - 3
Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox - 1
Roy Halladay, Blue Jays - 1
Other - 1

I'm certainly not trying to say that Rodriguez is not a legitimate MVP candidate, but I know that my site received over 200 referrals from angelswin.com last week, so I'm assuming that a few of those folks cast their votes while they were passing through.

It was a close competition, with four legitimate candidates, but Francisco Rodriguez is our winner, edging out Justin Morneau, Dustin Pedroia and Josh Hamilton. Thanks to everyone who voted.

AL Cy Young

At first glance, the AL Cy Young seems like a no-brainer. Cliff Lee led the league in ERA, at 2.54, and wins, going 22-3 for a .500 ball club. But, as a friend pointed out to me--the same guy (some call him Smitty) who made the argument for Pedroia I referenced in my last article--Roy Halladay is not to be overlooked.

Halladay led the league in innings pitched (246, to Lee's 223 1/3), complete games (9, to Lee's 4), strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.28, to Lee's 5.00), WHIP (1.05, to Lee's 1.11), and OPS against (.621, to Lee's .633). Halladay's 2.78 ERA placed him second in the league, and he has the edge over Lee in strikeouts (206-170), but at 20-11, Halladay's winning percentage (.645) is considerably lower than Lee's mark of .880. Considering Halladay's Blue Jays (86-76) won five more games than Lee's Indians (81-81), this would seem to be a major edge for Lee. But, despite the fact that Cleveland averaged 4.96 runs per game for the season, they scored an average of 6.13 when Lee was on the mound. Halladay received an average run support of 4.72, more than Toronto's overall 4.41 average, but still 1.4 runs less than Lee. Run support is, of course, not the only team-related factor that would affect a pitcher's winning percentage--team fielding and bullpen being the others--but this shows that just comparing a pitcher's percentage to his team's is not enough.

Other candidates among AL starting pitchers--Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90 ERA, .645 OPS) and Mike Mussina (20-9, 3.37 ERA, 4.84 K/BB)--fall short of Lee and Halladay. Francisco Rodriguez's record-setting season (62 Saves, 2-3, 2.24 ERA, 77 K in 68 1/3 IP) places him as the top candidate among relief pitchers. However, three other closers--Joakim Soria, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan--all were much more dominant, as evidenced by finishing considerably better than Rodriguez in OPS against, K/BB ratio, WHIP and ERA.

So, it comes down to Lee vs. Halladay. Despite the fact that his team's performance enters into it, it's hard to overlook Lee's 22-3 record and .880 winning percentage. Halladay's 9 complete games are impressive, but that and his marginal innings pitched and strikeout edges are really all he has of significance on Lee. Leading the league in two of the three pitching triple crown categories, and a winning percentage that ranks third all-time among 20-game winners, has to count for something. Count my vote for Cliff Lee.

National League MVP

Despite a bit of a slump during the season's stretch run, I'm sticking with my choice of Justin Morneau for AL MVP. Quoting something said to me by a friend of mine, who's a Red Sox fan, in an email conversation after having read "Making the Case for Morneau":

"...remember Ortiz, Youkilis, Lowell, and Drew have (all) been hurt at some point this year."

I contend that the fact that's even an issue backs up my point. That's how loaded this team is that they could afford to lose any one of those guys at any given time with minimal effect. This includes Pedroia. If he went down, the rest of those guys, and Jason Bay/Manny Ramirez (29 HR, 105 RBI, 105 R combined), would pick up the slack. Every one of those guys is better than anyone in the Twins' lineup, except Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Well, maybe Jason Kubel is about as good as Mike Lowell, but you get my point.

Enough said about that. It's time to move on to the other awards, starting with the National League MVP. This is a difficult one to pick, but the way I see it, it comes down to Ryan Howard or Albert Pujols. CC Sabathia's candidacy makes for an interesting debate, but I wouldn't give the MVP to a player who missed a half season due to injury, and for the same reason, I won't give the award to someone traded to his team at mid-season.

Ryan Howard had a great second-half, with 28 HR and 78 RBI in the season's final three months, and one could certainly argue that he carried his team in their run to catch the Mets in the NL East. So, I'm not going to worry about his low batting average (.251) and relatively low OPS (.882).

Albert Pujols' Cardinals ended the season four games out of the wild card spot, but they really didn't come quite that close, as there were two other teams between them and the Brewers. But, they remained a contender for much longer than anyone expected, and in my opinion, that leaves him in the mix of potential candidates. Pujols led the league in slugging, OPS, total bases, and the SABRmetric categories Adjusted OPS+, Runs Created, Adjusted Batting Runs, and Batting Wins, leading the last three categories by wide margins. I explained Adjusted OPS+ and Adjusted Batting Runs in the Morneau article, so I'll try to briefly describe the other two statistics here.

Runs Created is a runs estimator, similar to Adjusted Batting Runs, that assigns a positive value to outcomes like hits, walks, steals, home runs, etc. and negative values for outs, caught stealing and GIDP. Batting Wins attempts to measure the number of wins a player added relative to the league average hitter.

I'm going to go with Pujols here, based on his sheer statistical dominance and consistency, and the fact that he carried a team that most prognosticators didn't give a chance, especially after their staff ace, Chris Carpenter, went down with an injury that limited him to 15 1/3 IP for the year. They remained in contention for most of the season, and although they did slip a little near the end, they were a contender, and Pujols was inarguably the biggest reason for that. Based on these factors, he is my National League Most Valuable Player.

Morneau Article in Chicago Sun-Times

I'm not exactly sure how this works, but the article that I wrote advocating for Justin Morneau's MVP candidacy appeared in this past Monday's edition of the Chicago Sun-Times Online. Mike Lynch, who runs Seamheads.com told me that they picked it up through a syndication service called Blogburst.

My only complaint is that there's no byline, just a link to "Read more from this blogger", which links to the article as it appears on Seamheads.com. It would've been nice if the Sun-Times actually attributed the piece to my name. Maybe they didn't want to turn me into persona non grata in Boston for actually suggesting that the award should go to someone other than Dustin Pedroia, the MVP of about one month of the Red Sox season. Still, it's pretty exciting to see my work in such a major newspaper.

Meanwhile, Morneau went 2-for-15 during the Twins' recent four-game winning streak, including their sweep of the White Sox that moved them into first place. He's 1-for-9 in their two losses since that mini-winning streak, as the Twins and White Sox act like they're both scared of having to play the Rays in the opening round of the AL playoffs. Morneau also has one RBI since September 17, and he's 10-for-50 with 5 RBI (4 of them in the first three games) since I posted that article here. Sorry Justin, I guess I jinxed you.

Making the Case for Morneau

Two years ago, I wrote about how the MVP is a joke, because it's come down to nothing but a debate over what the criteria for the award should be. Justin Morneau won the American League MVP that year, and I had no problem with that. But, I just felt that the award should go to the Most Valuable Player, with no disqualification because so-and-so's a pitcher and they have their own award, and no inconsistency where sometimes it simply goes to the player with the best numbers, without any consideration for how truly valuable he was.

That year, I also handed out Charles Simone's first "annual" Babe Ruth Awards to Albert Pujols in the NL and David Ortiz in the AL. Then, of course, I completely forgot about it and failed to honor anyone last year. So, as silly as this seems right now, I'll give Charles Simone's 2007 Babe Ruth Awards to Matt Holliday in the NL and Alex Rodriguez in the AL. I'll try to remember to announce this year's awards in a somewhat more timely fashion.

The title of this post, however, is about Justin Morneau's 2008 MVP candidacy. I've mentioned this a few times already, in this blog as well as a couple of comments I've made on Casey's Clipboard. I'm more convinced now than I've ever been that Morneau is hands-down the leading candidate for the American League's Most Valuable Player award. Let's take a look at my main arguments for this.

First, I'm a major advocate that the MVP should come from a team that was a playoff contender. There are some circumstances where I might consider making an exception, but none of those apply this year. So, I'll start with the fact that Morneau is tied for the AL lead in RBI with 124, and his co-leader, Josh Hamilton, plays for a Texas Rangers team that is 15 1/2 games out in the wild card race, and 19 1/2 games behind the West division leading "Los Angeles" Angels. Hamilton, also, has considerably cooled off since the all-star break, driving in just 29 runs in 51 games, while Morneau has produced 56 RBI in 54 games over the same time frame. Additionally, the next highest total by any player on a team within 10 games of sniffing the playoffs is Kevin Youkilis' 102, 22 fewer than Morneau's total.

Not that I need to, but let's take a closer look at the Morneau-Youkilis comparison. Obviously, having teammates who reach base is a very important factor in a player's RBI total. The Twins, as a team, are 5th in the American League with a .340 OBP, while the Red Sox lead the league in that category at .360. Taking this a step further, the three players who have most commonly batted in the 1-2-3 positions in the Twins order (i.e. in front of Morneau) are Carlos Gomez (.292 OBP), Alexi Casilla (.337) and Joe Mauer (.409). If you simply calculate the average of these three, it's .346, still considerably lower than the Red Sox team average. Not very scientific I realize, but I still think it supports my point that Morneau is producing big-time RBI numbers surrounded by a mediocre supporting cast.

While we're still on the subject of supporting cast, the hitters who have provided protection in the lineup for Morneau are no more impressive. Michael Cuddyer, the most common batter in the 5th spot in the order for Minnesota, has a slugging percentage of .377 and an OPS of .703, significantly below the league averages of .420 and .755, respectively. Jason Kubel, he of the second most at-bats in the spot behind Morneau, has slugged a solid .464 with a .805 OPS. Still, it's safe to say that the hybrid of these two players is an average American League hitter, hardly the type that is needed to ensure that opposing teams need to pitch to an offensive threat such as Morneau. The fact that Morneau is tied for the AL lead in intentional walks, with 15, backs up my point that he's not seeing as many good pitches to hit as other players with stronger lineup protection behind them, particularly those on loaded offensive teams.

But, obviously, I'm not making the case for Morneau based on just one statistical category. He's scored 92 runs, and his simplistic runs produced (HR + R - HR) total of 193 is tops in the league. He's also hitting .312 (7th in AL), with 44 2B (6th), a .386 OBP (6th) and a .526 slugging percentage (9th).

I think I've made a pretty good case that Morneau's RBI total is truly relevant. I've also addressed the opinion that RBI is an over-rated statistic by showing that he's racked up more than impressive numbers while at a slight disadvantage to players on more balanced offensive teams. However, it's when I dig further and look at the true SABRmetric categories, those that don't depend on the performance of teammates, that my case is really reinforced.

If I'm going to use SABRmetric statistics, they need to have park and league adjustments built in, and the two best categories that fit the bill are Adjusted OPS+ (On-Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage, adjusted to account for park and league factors) and Adjusted Batting Runs (the number of runs the player's production contributed to above that of a league average player, also adjusted for park factor). Morneau is 5th in the league in Adjusted OPS+, with only players from non-contenders (Milton Bradley, Alex Rodriguez, Aubrey Huff) and Carlos Quentin of the White Sox ahead of him. I'll address the Morneau vs. Quentin comparison later.

Morneau looks even better when Adjusted Batting Runs is used. He trails only Milton Bradley and Alex Rodriguez there. Bradley, despite ranking first in both of these categories, not only plays for a sub-.500 Texas Rangers team, but just hasn't produced enough actual runs to warrant consideration (74 runs, 74 RBI). Rodriguez has had a good year, although he's been booed almost incessantly in New York based on the perception that he hasn't come through in the clutch this year. Regardless of whether or not that's fair, he just hasn't done enough for an underachieving Yankees team to be a candidate for MVP.

Check out baseball-reference.com's 2008 American League Expanded Leaderboards to take a look at the statistics I've referred to here. For a better explanation of what these statistics mean, see their Batting Stats Glossary.

Since I previously referred to my personal preference of giving the award only to players on teams that at least were in contention for the playoffs, I should take a look at the other leading candidates from each of those teams. I'm really only considering five teams here: the Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels. The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees are the only other teams above .500, and while both teams were considered playoff contenders at times this season, the Blue Jays, given their late push for the postseason that appears to be coming up short, would be the only of those two for whom I'd consider a candidate. However, that candidate would have to be pretty exceptional, and while Roy Halladay has had an excellent year, I don't think it's been good enough to warrant serious consideration. The Yankees were major underachievers, so I would find it hard to justify any player on that team being considered most valuable.

So, that leaves the five contenders, one of which, the Twins or White Sox, will be left out of postseason action. But, that doesn't matter, as a team remaining in the race until the last half of September is a championship contender. During the stretch run, they're simply playing for the right to advance to the next round. Let's look at the candidates from each of these teams.

Tampa Bay is one of those teams from which it would be difficult to choose who has been their most valuable player, let alone the league's. Many have suggested that it's Evan Longoria, but he's just returned from missing an entire month, doesn't have enough at-bats to qualify for the lead in any of the average categories, and doesn't lead the team in any significant cumulative categories. James Shields is their most valuable pitcher, but he's hardly an MVP candidate.

For Chicago, Carlos Quentin was once considered the league's leading MVP candidate, but he's out for the final month of the season, and that's reason enough to eliminate him from consideration, especially for a team that is still fighting for a playoff spot. Jermaine Dye has had a very good season as well, but he's still overshadowed by Quentin on his own team. The pitching staff has been solid, but there are no exceptional performers there.

The Los Angeles Angels have the best record in the American League, and have had the easiest road to the playoffs, clinching the division title earlier than any AL West team in history. Their most valuable player would have to be Francisco Rodriguez, but, despite breaking the all-time single season saves record, his season is statistically inferior to several other AL closers, including Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria and Jonathan Papelbon.

Among Morneau's own teammates, Joe Mauer has had a very good year (.322, 8 HR, 73 RBI), but his season pales in comparison to Morneau's. Joe Nathan has also been impressive, but a closer would have to be truly exceptional to earn my MVP vote, and Nathan comes up short of that distinction.

That leaves the Red Sox, and I saved them for last for a reason. They have who I consider to be the two most compelling candidates other than Morneau. The Boston media and fans have been trumpeting the candidacy of Dustin Pedroia of late, but it was just a few weeks ago that their man was Kevin Youkilis. Personally, I still think Youkilis is a stronger candidate, although it's hard to ignore the post-all star break numbers of Pedroia. I've already made the case for Morneau over Youkilis, though, and Morneau's second-half production compares favorably to Pedroia's. But, most importantly, the fact that the Red Sox have two strong candidates further supports my point that Morneau is easily more valuable to his team than either of those players, especially considering J.D. Drew was their first-half MVP.

With that, I rest my case, and welcome anyone to share their opinion with me on this subject, even if you disagree...in which case you'd be wrong.

The MVP is a joke

I'm not referring to Justin Morneau or Ryan Howard. I honestly couldn't care less. Maybe that's the point...I just don't care. The MVP has turned into nothing more than a debate over what the criteria should be...this guy doesn't deserve it because his team didn't contend, this guy isn't that valuable because he has too much of a supporting cast, pitchers have their own award, etc.

Speaking of pitchers, I'll give you an award that has meaning...the Cy Young. It goes to the best pitcher in his respective league. Sure, you could debate whether or not Brandon Webb was that guy, and maybe the team he's on enters into the argument a little. Webb won 16 games for a sub-.500 team while Chris Carpenter, for example, won 15 games for....well, never mind. That's another tangent all to itself. My point is that 50% of the time the winner is absolutely cut and dried (Santana - 2006, Carpenter -2005, Santana - 2004).

Alright, I'll admit that maybe that's because great pitchers tend to really stand out above the competition, but if we were discussing who was the best offensive player in each league this year, I would come down to these guys...Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols in the NL, David Ortiz in the AL. Travis Hafner would have given Ortiz a run for his money if he hadn't got hurt, and Lance Berkman and Jermaine Dye both deserve honorable mention, but those three guys were clearly the best offensive players in baseball this year.

What am I suggesting? Nothing really. Alternatives would be to redefine the MVP as the top offensive performer, do away with the award completely and replace it with something comparable to the Cy Young (I prefer the Babe Ruth award), or to add the "Babe Ruth Award" to the current system. MLB currently is toying with the fan-voted Hank Aaron award. Personally, I think it should be named after an iconic player from earlier in the game's history, but regardless, this seems the most likely possibility.

Anyway...I'm going to get down off my high horse and give out Charles Simone's first annual Babe Ruth Awards:

NL - Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
AL - David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox


"It all adds up to a funky situation."
-W. Drayton

There was no shortage of quality rookies in the AL this year. I'm only ranking the top five overall here, but first a few honorable mentions (in no particular order): Jesse Crain, Minnesota (RP); Chris Young, Texas (SP); Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay (SP); Nick Swisher, Oakland (OF-1B); Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay (OF); Russ Adams, Toronto (SS); Dan Johnson, Oakland (1B). Quite a year for rookies in Oakland, by the way.

1. Huston Street, Oakland (RP): Converted 23 of 25 Saves since becoming the A's closer in early June, and his 1.72 ERA was second among all AL closers to none other than Mariano Rivera...enough said.

2. Robinson Cano, New York (2B): As it turns out, Tad Iguchi's defensive numbers were only slightly better than Cano's, leaving the decision as to where to rank these two as a virtual tossup, considering Cano's offensive numbers (.297 BA, .458 SLG, 78 Runs, 34 2B, 14 HR, 62 RBI) are slightly more impressive. In the end, I gave Cano the edge because he's more of a true rookie than Iguchi, the Japanese four-time all star.

3. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago (2B): Easily produced the most consistent season among AL rookie position players (.278, 74 Runs, 15 HR, 71 RBI, 15 SB), but since he was already an established professional, that was less impressive than Cano's season. Okay, I'll admit it...I said I wasn't going to discriminate against Iguchi due to his professional experience in Japan, but I guess I changed my mind.

4. Joe Blanton, Oakland (SP): Easily the most consistent among AL rookie starting pitchers. Suffered from a lack of run support (3.93 per 9 IP, compared to 6.21 for Chacin), which explains the 12-12 record, despite leading all AL rookies in ERA (3.53) and quality starts (22).

5. Gustavo Chacin, Toronto (SP): He slumped big time in August, but in the end put together a strong rookie campaign, leading all AL rookies in innings (203) and wins (13-9).

In the National League, the early season injury suffered by Clint Barmes and the second half emergence of Ryan Howard and Jeff Francoeur muddled the rookie of the year picture. However, there was a pair of everyday rookies who provided the strongest candidacies for the award.

1. Willy Taveras, Houston (CF): Despite just a .666 OPS, Taveras is my pick for the NL award. He led all Major League rookies in At Bats, Runs, Hits, and Stolen Bases. He also played very good defense in CF for the Astros, including ranking second only to Andruw Jones in outfield assists among NL center fielders.

2. Garrett Atkins, Colorado (3B): Often overlooked in NL rookie discussions, Atkins produced the most solid season of all, leading all NL rookies in RBI with 89 and hitting .287 with 13 HR and a .773 OPS.

3. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia (1B): While not quite as celebrated as Francoeur, Howard gets the edge in my book. His numbers speak for themselves: 22 HR (first among NL rookies), 63 RBI, .924 OPS. And, let's not overlook the fact that he stepped in admirably to replace the injured Jim Thome.

4. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta (OF): I'm certainly not trying to diminish Francoeur's accomplishments, but this is a strong field, and less than half a season does not a rookie of the year make. It was, however, a fantastic partial season, as he batted .300 with 14 HR in 257 AB, and produced an amazing 13 outfield assists (although also 5 errors) in just 67 games.

5. Clint Barmes, Colorado (SS): Barmes gets the nod to round out the top five over a number of solid, but unspectacular, NL rookies. He did make 17 errors in only half a season, but he was the leading candidate before getting injured, and did finish at .289 with 10 HR, 46 RBI, 55 Runs, and a .764 OPS.

I could either rattle off a long list of NL honorable mentions, or just a few, so I'll opt for the latter: Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (2B); Gary Majewski, Washington (RP); Chad Qualls, Houston (RP).

By the time I get through ranking the four categories of rookies, it will be necessary to revisit my first list. But still, here goes with the AL pitchers...

1. Huston Street, Oakland (RP): This category could actually be broken down into two separate categories (relievers and starters), but Oakland's new closer ranks ahead of all of them. His sub-1.00 WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched), 63 K in 66.2 IP, 1.23 ERA, and 18 Saves stand out among all rookie pitchers. Obviously, there aren't any other closers who are rookies, but the fact that he leads all AL closers in ERA is quite impressive, and his numbers clearly shine above the rookie starters who are currently turning in very solid debuts. His four blown saves result in a fairly unimpressive save rate of 81.8%, but two of these occurred before he became the closer, and actually should be classified as blown holds.

2. Gustavo Chacin, Toronto (SP): Chacin has been the most impressive among rookie starters, although a rough August has really hurt his candidacy. Overall, he's tied for first among AL rookies in wins at 11-8, second in ERA (3.73), and first in innings pitched (166.1).

3. Chris Young, Texas (SP): Joe Blanton gets more attention, but Young is quietly 11-7 with a 4.22 ERA, playing home games in a hitter's ballpark (although his road ERA is actually only marginally better than at home). He's also second to Scott Kazmir among AL rookies in strikeouts, with 131 in 153.2 IP.

4. Andrew Sisco, Kansas City (RP): Cisco has been one of the few bright spots on the worst team in the AL. He's turned in a strong season as Mike MacDougal's most reliable setup man, with 12 holds (for a team who's only won 43 games), a 2.58 ERA, .226 opponents' batting average, and 68 K in 66.1 IP. His control is his one shortcoming (37 BB), but he's certainly shown promise.

5. Joe Blanton, Oakland (SP): Blanton may have the most promise of all the rookie starters here, but, his 8-10 record is less than impressive. He's had two great months (5-1, 2.06 in June; 3-1, 1.07 in August), and has the top ERA among AL rookies (3.54). However, he needs to continue his strong August performance into September, and finish with at least 12 wins to have a chance.

6. Jesse Crain, Minnesota (RP): Crain has done a solid job in a setup role for Joe Nathan (9-4, 2.51, 11 holds), but the fact that he's walked more batters than he's struck out (26 to 22) is a major shortcoming. Nevertheless, he warrants a mention on this list.

Once again, it's been way too long since I've posted something here. Writing regularly doesn't seem to come that easily for me, but I'm going to make an effort to revive this blog.

I've recently become interested in handicapping the Rookie of the Year races. For the moment, I'm going to break them down into four categories: AL batters, AL pitchers, NL batters, and NL pitchers. Starting with the AL batters, here's how I rank them at this point in the season:

1. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago (2B): I'm not sure if the bias against already established players from international professional leagues that affected Hideki Matsui's candicacy two years ago, will hurt his chances. I suspect it will -- Iguchi is a four-time Japanese all-star -- but I'm still going to consider him a full fledged rookie, and the best candidate among AL hitters at that. He leads all AL rookies in runs (60), hits (108), stolen bases (14), and batting average (.280); ranks third in HR (12) and RBI (48); and has played solidly (.981 fielding pct.) at an important defensive position.

2. Nick Swisher, Oakland (OF-1B): Swisher has the power numbers on Iguchi (16 HR, 60 RBI, .470 slugging pct.), and has played adequate defensively in the outfield (although his range factor is suspect), but Iguchi gets the edge due his overall more well rounded play (hitting, speed, defense).

3. Russ Adams, Toronto (SS): Adams ranks third due to his solid offensive numbers (51 runs, 8 HR, 52 RBI, .783 OPS), and the fact that he's played a very important defensive position as a rookie. What hurts him are his 22 errors (second only to Edgar Renteria among AL shortstops), his .947 fielding percentage (last among AL SS), and his below average range.

4. Robinson Cano, New York (2B): Cano rounds out the top four as the only other worthy rookie with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title. His numbers at the plate are solid (54 runs, 8 HR, 43 RBI, .714 OPS) while playing in the glare of the New York spotlight, but his defense has been inconsistent at best, as his 12 errors and .975 fielding percentage rank only better than former Yankee Alfonso Soriano among AL second basemen.

5. Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay (OF): The leader in home runs among AL rookies with 17 (in just 217 at bats), Gomes also has an OPS of .941, and is still a candidate to make a run at the award now that he's basically secured a role as a full-time player in the second half of 2005.

6. Dan Johnson, Oakland (1B): see Jonny Gomes; Johnson's second half numbers (.331 BA, .407 OBP, .554 SLG, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 21 runs in 121 AB) indicate serious candidacy should he be able to maintain his play at close to such a level.